Predictors of performance in the subsequent golf tournament after a strong performance in a major tournament

Carl E Enomoto

Abstract


Many professional golfers have an outstanding performance in a major golf tournament, only to miss the cut in the next golf event they enter.  The purpose of this paper was to determine which factors contributed to this outcome.  Using the estimates of a Probit Model, it was found that the probability of missing the cut in the next tournament was reduced, the older the golfer and the fewer the number of Professional Golfers Association (PGA) career events already played in by the golfer. There was also a U-shaped relationship found between the number of days to the next event after a major tournament and the probability of missing the cut.  In particular, the longer a golfer waited to enter his next tournament after success in a major (tournament), the lower was the probability of missing the cut.  However, if a golfer waited too long to enter his next tournament, the probability of missing the cut increased.


Keywords


golf; pga; cutline; probit; winner's curese

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References


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